报告题目：Not Coming Home: Trade and Economic Policy Uncertainty in Global Production Networks
报 告 人：吴靖
We show U.S. trade and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) predict precautionary actions in the global value chains of American companies. Spikes in foreign economic policy uncertainty introduces a negative wealth impact that propagates up to three tiers among U.S. domestic firms. Increases in foreign country EPU is also correlated with a higher propensity that an American firm exits a particular country. However, rather than bring production home, higher American trade policy uncertainty is associated with a tilt of both production and customer bases abroad. Looking within a firm-foreign country pair, we also find foreign policy uncertainty is related to a decrease in supply chain relationships in that country. Firms for which production shocks would be more severe appear to engage in more precautionary supply chain behaviour as well as those that are more central to the global production network.