2021年5月17日下午，现代供应链管理研究院第五十三期学术论坛如期举行。本次论坛的主讲人是东北财经大学副教授葛倩茹，其报告题目为“Optimal Redesign Decisions through Failure Rate Estimates”。

葛老师在分享会上与现场观众进行了积极互动，详细解答了观众们的疑问。未来，我院会继续搭建好学术交流平台，营造宽松活跃的学术交流氛围，助力领域内学者的交流与研究。

【摘要】

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system’s engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically,  and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.

【主讲人简介】

葛倩茹老师本科毕业于厦门大学计划统计系，硕士毕业于北京理工大学应用经济系，在国家留学基金委的资助下于荷兰埃因霍温理工大学工业工程系攻读博士学位。主要研究方向为以服务合约为背景的，不确定条件下的可靠性优化。

撰稿人：刘昱含

审核人：张颖