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研究院论坛:NO.37 An Analytic Tool for Estimating the Price-response Function of a Hotel Chain
2020年09月25日

报告题目:An Analytic Tool for Estimating the Price-response Function of a Hotel Chain

报 告 人:陈吉

报告时间2020年09月25日(周五),10:00-11:30

报告地点:明哲楼504(本报告同时进行线上直播)

主办单位:现代供应链管理研究院

【报告人简介】

陈吉,博士毕业于复旦大学管理学院。博士期间曾前往新加坡管理大学访问交流。随后在香港科技大学运营管理系任职博士后。主要研究方向为运营管理、数据驱动的酒店收益管理、排队论、医疗服务系统等。其成果已发表于《系统工程学报》等期刊。

【摘要】

We develop an instrument-free method to correct for endogeneity when estimating price responses and report an analytics tool we developed for a hotel chain to estimate the price response functions in aggregate level. Our approach overcomes the issues of price endogeneity, censored demand, and unobservable demand shocks in the real data using a structural eqaution modeling. To handle these issues, we model a hotel’s revenue management problem as a single-period revenue maximization problem with a stochastic and price-dependent demand. With a piece-wise linear approximation to the loss function due to capacity limit, the revenue function becomes a piece-wise quadratic function of the price. Under a rather general condition, we derive a closed-form formula for the best price to this revenue function, which leads to a closed-form log-likelihood function for the observed sales and price. With a global optimization routine we find the optimal parameter values for our data. The simulation study shows that the more segments in the piece-wise linear approximation, the more accurate the approach is. Especially, the approach with odd segments respectively performs better than that with even segments.

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