报告题目：Advance Selling in the Presence of a Product Rollover
报 告 人：肖勇波
Yongbo Xiao is a Professor (with tenure) at School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, China. He received his Ph.D. and M.A. in Management Science and Engineering in 2006, and B.E. in Management Information Systems in 2000, all from Tsinghua University. He joined Tsinghua SEM as an assistant professor in Aug. 2008 after he completed his postdoctoral research in Department of Economics in Tsinghua SEM. He was awarded the “Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholar” under National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) in 2012 and the “Young Scholar Award of Chinese Management Science” in 2014. He was elected as a Chang Jiang scholar in 2015.
Dr. Xiao’s research interests include revenue and pricing management, service management, supply chain management, and healthcare management. His research topics include airline revenue management, assemble-to-order systems, fresh product supply chain management, channel integration in online retailing, demand management with product rollovers, rent-to-own contracts, and dynamic mechanism design. Dr. Xiao has published over 40 papers in the refereed international and domestic journals in the area of operations research and management science, including Operations Research, Production and Operations Management, Decision Sciences, Naval Research Logistics, IIE Transactions, and Omega: The International Journal of Management Science.
In the presence of frequent product rollovers, forward-looking customers may choose between buying an old product currently available and waiting for a new one released in the future. This study investigates the profitability of advance selling in managing customer demand between two generations of products. By guaranteeing customers with future new products at pre-determined prices, advance selling enhances customers' willingness to buy future new products and prevents waiting customers from reneging. However, such a strategy may cannibalize the sales of current old products. We study this trade-off by considering a finite selling horizon, during which firms sell old generation products to a flow of potential customers. Given the choice behavior of customers, firms determine whether or not to offer advance selling options. We use a base model, in which firms have sufficiently large production capacity for old products, as basis to study an optimal advance selling price and investigate its structural properties with respect to the timing factor. We also use an extended model, in which firms hold a batch of non-replenishable inventory of old products, as basis to analyze the structural properties with respect to the remaining inventory levels. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the profit potential of advance selling in the presence of product rollover.